Chao-perations: Drive efficiency by embracing unpredictability

Many managers struggle to control complex systems consisting of many different agents and moving parts. When they do not perform like easier-to-predict linear systems, the confusion can blow a whole company off-course. For that reason, true success in an environment as disorientating as it is competitive requires a comprehensive awareness of the lessons of chaos theory.

Chaos theory discusses systems which are unpredictably deterministic. This means slight changes in initial conditions can have highly divergent end-states. For business, this yields two essential lessons: firstly, that planning is everything, and success or failure can be determined merely by how the initial conditions are constructed; secondly, the direction of a sequence of events can be radically altered by a slight alteration. This means that there is often no need for radical or overbearing management. Often, a slight nudge to an employee, or a small conversation with a client is all that is needed to get back on track. Some managers might find that in changing too much, they open up new opportunities for failure rather than taking care to preserve the functioning aspects of a process.

Furthermore, chaos theory teaches that highly ordered systems can emerge from disorder, and that movement in complex arrangements can occur spontaneously. Many managers suffer from an understandable urge to control every aspect of their purview. In such cases, they disallow most actions not specifically condoned or requested by themselves. While this might allow for smooth operation without unexpected developments, it risks hampering efficacy in favour of efficiency: if subordinates are encouraged to implement their own ideas, take control of their own work, and make or suggest improvements, then they are likely not only to improve the overall project in ways you as manager might not have had the perspective to consider, but they also relieve workload from supervisors and managers through greater independence. Such emancipated workers are likely to be more invested in their own work, to which they will feel more association. A chaos-sensitive leadership style would therefore treat individuals as agents moving deterministically based not on a large-scale linear prediction but rather on each of their unique incentives and disincentives. Although this will cultivate a seemingly chaotic environment, chaos theory teaches us that such an environment can result in ordered patterns as long as it is not forced to behave unnaturally.

This is by no means straightforward: it involves relinquishing the illusion of control upon which so much of management orthodoxy has been built thus far. Indeed, this adaptation of style is itself a microcosm of the greater chaotic system, as it represents a small change which will have disproportionate repercussions.

However, the role of managers is not diminished in any respect by this method. Although it might appear more subtly than conventional management, chaos-conscious managers face a difficult task: keeping the organisation in the perfect state right on the edge of chaos. Too far, and the disparate elements will fail to combine into positive outcomes, but not far enough and the business suffers from the inefficiency which occurs when linear programming is applied to a chaotic system. To navigate the chaotic seas of human behaviour requires the strongest managerial skills. One must be able to predict the behaviour of all the individuals who are involved, and adjust predictions in real time to respond to developments. Such strategic dynamism is far from facile and requires deliberate departure from more quotidian ways of thinking.

Whether the organisation is a startup which must make the right small decisions for the big payoffs later, or a large company seeking to remain competitive in an increasingly difficult to predict financial environment, the flexibility that emerges from chaotic thinking can be a considerable asset. Suddenly, unforeseen changes in course cease to derail and become alluring opportunities. Once it becomes possible to recognise the patterns and forces which act, a manager, like a chaos-theorist, becomes able to see a range of possible end states and can delicately influence the system for the benefit of their goals.

Fundamentally, this is a story of two managers: one who looks at natural disorder in their surroundings and tries to order it, and another who succeeds by harnessing that very same chaotic nature. One might think that a good manager will play at forcing his the world around them to become something it is not, but in fact by applying the lessons of chaos theory, we can see that order can emerge from disorder with the slightest push. In a system as grand and indecipherable as human society, success comes from expecting the unexpected, from conquering the fear of uncertainty and embracing the wisdom of chaos.